SAM Rainsyសហស្ថាបនិកគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ

លោក សម រង្ស៊ី អត្ថាធិប្បាយអំពីដំណោះស្រាយនយោបាយ នៅប្រទេសកម្ពុជា គឺតាមរយៈច្រក ឬសេណារីយ៉ូ ៣ យ៉ាង​ / Three scenarios in the unfolding of Cambodia's political crisis

ចែករំលែក ៖​

១២ មីនា ២០២២ / 12 March 2022 - Three scenarios in the unfolding of Cambodia's political crisis (*)

លោក សម រង្ស៊ី អត្ថាធិប្បាយអំពីដំណោះស្រាយនយោបាយ នៅប្រទេសកម្ពុជា គឺតាមរយៈច្រក ឬសេណារីយ៉ូ ៣ យ៉ាង ដូចតទៅ។

(*) Three scenarios in the unfolding of Cambodia's political crisis:

- 1st scenario: Hun Sen sticks with his accusation to the end and has Kem Sokha convicted for “treason” and the U.S. for “criminal interference.” This scenario is practically impossible to carry out due to lack of proof. To jointly condemn Kem Sokha and the U.S. in such a blatant way would be a dangerous path for Hun Sen. His regime would suffer severe criticism and would lose all legitimacy.

- 2nd scenario: Under pressure from Hun Sen, Kem Sokha agrees to “confess to his crime” and immediately receives a “royal pardon” arranged by Hun Sen. Kem Sokha regains his freedom but finds himself discredited. This is Hun Sen’s preferred scenario because it would allow him to save face while avoiding the rehabilitation of the CNRP, the popularity of which is his greatest fear. Kem Sokha until now has refused to go along with this scenario as it would be the equivalent of political suicide.

- 3rd scenario : Hun Sen abandons his accusations against Kem Sokha and the U.S. Kem Sokha is found innocent with the immediate political result that the CNRP is rehabilitated. The situation is normalized and the democratic process is resumed. This is the scenario which Hun Sen fears the most and which he is seeking to avoid by dragging out Kem Sokha’s trial.